What's the mortgage-rate forecast for 2026?
Quick Answer
Short answer: Consensus sees five-year fixed settling around 3.9–4.1% by mid-2026.
Detailed Explanation
Economists at BMO, National Bank and Desjardins expect the Bank of Canada to trim the overnight rate to 3% by late 2025 as inflation returns near target. Historical spreads imply discounted 5-year fixed rates just under 4% in 2026.
- BoC terminal-rate call (median): 2.75%
- Bond-market futures price in four 25 bp cuts by Q2 2026
- Variable-rate borrowers could see 90 bp relief vs current payments
Disclaimer: This page is for general information only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Always verify details with a licensed Alberta REALTOR®, mortgage professional, or lawyer before making decisions. Buy in Edmonton assumes no liability for actions taken based on this content.
Tim Grover, RE/MAX Excellence • 780-288-5144 • 5607 199 Street NW, Edmonton, AB
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